Charging forward: what does the Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Regulation bring?

In a significant move towards sustainability, the European Parliament and the Council agreed on a provisional political accord known as the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) in March 2023. This monumental agreement, endorsed by the Transport and Tourism committee of the parliament in late May 2023, aims to enhance accessibility to electric recharging and hydrogen refueling stations across Europe’s key transport corridors and hubs, marking a substantial step in the EU’s commitment to achieving zero-emissions and reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030. 

The AFIR sets mandatory deployment targets for electric recharging and hydrogen refueling infrastructure across several sectors, including road sector infrastructure, shore-side electricity supply in maritime and inland waterway ports and stationary aircraft electricity supply. The AFIR also lays the groundwork for an efficient and user-friendly refueling experience across all EU Member States by advocating transparent pricing, standardized minimum payment options and uniform customer information. 

The AFIR’s Article 3.1 outlines annual Member State targets for charging infrastructure for light-duty EVs (electric vehicles), like cars or vans. These targets are directly related to the growth in EV adoption. Additionally, these stations are required to provide sufficient power output to meet demand. To fulfil these objectives, Member States are obligated to meet cumulative power output targets annually, starting from the regulation’s commencement, expected around 2025. The targets are as follows: 

1. For each battery electric light-duty vehicle registered within a Member State’s jurisdiction, publicly accessible recharging stations must supply a total power output of at least 1 kW. 
2. For every plug-in hybrid light-duty vehicle registered within a Member State’s jurisdiction, publicly accessible recharging stations must supply a total power output of at least 0.66 kW. 

Furthermore, the regulation necessitates chargers at least every 60 km on main roads (the so-called core TEN-T network). For cars, these stations should be in place by 2025, and for trucks by 2030.  

Public charger deployment in the EU 

Based on these guidelines, we can evaluate, as shown in Figure 1, how Member States are progressing with their charging infrastructure in place compared to the AFIR targets.

Figure 1: Total power output per AFIR fleet-based target for Member States based on European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO) data. No data is reported for France. Graphic: Mia Shu / SEI.

If the AFIR were to be enforced today, all Member States except Malta would meet the AFIR target. This is indeed positive news. However, with the accelerating rate of new EV acquisitions, maintaining balance between introducing EVs and establishing public chargers will be crucial. Should this balance be disrupted,  several Member States could fall behind in their AFIR target achievements. Additionally, not all Member States have well-developed public charging infrastructures, primarily due to a lack of sufficient EV fleet sizes. Hence, for countries like Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Sweden, and Spain, forward planning might be more straightforward than for countries with minimal public charging infrastructure, such as Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia or Poland.  

Countries with small EV fleets face a “chicken or egg” dilemma: the lack of market interest hampers the deployment of charging infrastructure, and conversely, consumers are hesitant to purchase EVs due to insufficient chargers. To break this deadlock, policy support that benefits both consumers and charging companies is crucial. 

The economics of charging  

In our previous discussion on charging access and pricing, we analyzed how regional variances and access to private charging (at home or at work) in addition to public charging infrastructure can shape the experience and affordability of owning an EV. This present analysis uses Figure 2 to illustrate the distance attainable from a single charging session costing EUR 10 in each Member State. We base our calculation on the EAFO’s tool, presuming a Tesla Model 3 charge, with an average energy consumption rate of 16 kWh per 100 km. We compare two scenarios: ad hoc charging at a fast (DC) public charging point without a mobility service provider subscription, and at-home charging based on average household electricity prices per kWh for the first quarter of 2022 (inclusive of all taxes, levies and network charges). 

Firstly, Figure 2 highlights the disparity between the energy derived from private and public charging. On average, private charging offers 169% more energy (translating to 352 km with EUR 10) compared to public charging (131 km with EUR 10). Countries such as the Netherlands, Hungary and Bulgaria show even larger differences, while Denmark, Czech Republic and Portugal show smaller disparities. This variation is due to the pricing strategies for public charging services and the general electricity market structure within each country.  

For context, the average diesel price in the first quarter of 2022 in 12 EU countries would have provided 112km for EUR 10. Hence, even costlier public charging extends an EV’s range further than a diesel vehicle for the same price.

Figure 2: Comparison of charging costs across EU Member States for public and private charging. Source: author’s calculation with data from EAFO. Graphic: Mia Shu / SEI.

Public charging is vital when considering charging infrastructure access and equity. In certain scenarios, public charging might be the only option for some EV owners, for example, individuals residing in high-density urban areas or rental apartments without charging access.  

This necessitates landlords and parking providers (including workplaces) to expedite their efforts to provide such services at affordable rates. In essence, we aim for a balance: affordable private charging at home or at work should be the primary option, supplemented by accessible public fast charging where alternatives are lacking or for mitigating range anxiety for drivers.  

This balance has significant implications for battery sizing, as the presence of a robust public charging network could enable smaller batteries, promoting a more efficient utilization of natural resources.  

What should be the next steps?  

The AFIR will provide crucial backing for the expansion of public charging infrastructure across the EU, bolstering the appeal of EVs. However, to supplement the AFIR and ensure equitable implementation and optimal results, several actions should be undertaken:  

• Member States lagging in charger deployment should expedite processes. This step should coincide with generous incentives for EV purchases to stimulate the charging service provision market. Additionally, charger location should be considered to ensure maximum utilization.  
• Revise the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) to complement the AFIR’s provisions for public charging with provisions for private charging, which will nevertheless be the main charging strategy. 
• Monitor pricing and investigate equity implications for access to charging services, since there are differences between Member States that might impede certain societal groups’ access to affordable charging.  

Forecasting future demand is a key element in developing charging infrastructure. While the AFIR begins to quantify these demands in a wider context, local requirements and future trends in the EV market might alter these targets. Additionally, charging demand might evolve differently across transport market segments, such as public transport or logistics.  

In the SEI project Laddinfra Pro, we synthesize evidence from Swedish and international studies on the varying charging infrastructure needs across different  vehicles types and user profiles. Our project findings will be invaluable when reviewing future EU policies for charging infrastructure deployment.